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#21 OFFLINE   Rescape

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Posted 24 January 2014 - 10:25 PM

View Poststinkyfax, on 24 January 2014 - 10:13 PM, said:

what an excuse.
It takes around 20 minutes to think in your head what company u'd like to invest into, buy their stocks, and wait for a month to see the results.
I was thinking to be more active if I start but if it works that way also, why not :D

View Poststinkyfax, on 29 October 2012 - 02:45 PM, said:

I declare Monday being an official annoy-hani day

#praiserescape

#22 OFFLINE   katze

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Posted 24 January 2014 - 10:48 PM

Posted ImageI believe the stock market is highly over priced, all over the world, and that it all moves according to what happens in the US stock and treasury market. It's a bubble fueled by cheap money provided by the federal reserve. The federal reserve believes that if they just provide unlimited money at low rates for big banks and institutions, the economy will return to the pace of growth it had before the real estate bubble collapsed (2007/2008) forgetting that the growth back then was driven by a housing bubble and people getting more into debt, and that what we now see is home prices driven upwards mostly by speculation (60% of US real estate is now bought with cash only), and that people and many companies are deleveraging (paying loans back), which does not drive growth. The US M2 money supply velocity has plunged ever since 2000 (the rate at which money circulates in the economy). E.g. if I take the taxi back home from a restaurant my money has velocity, as the taxi driver most likely will use it to buy more gas etc. If I choose to walk home and leave my money in the bank the money has a velocity of 0.

The stock market is at the current prices (SPX @ 1790, DJIA @ 15879) priced at a price to earnings ratio of above the historical average. American small cap companies (Russel 2000 index) are priced at a price to earnings ratio of 87, which is insane. It's far beyond what the Nasdaq was priced at back at the peak of the tech bubble in 2000.

At this point I believe more in longer term positioning rather than trading stocks (at least not being long illiquid small cap stocks). I believe in holding the USD index, or even shorting the large stock indicies like the DJIA, SPX, CAC40, DAX, and just hold the position for 1,5-2 years. In my view it's not highly unlikely the SPX will go below 1600 before the end of the year and maybe even below 670 within two-three years, if this really is a stock bubble. That's what I'm planning on positioning myself for anyhow.

It's the US free capitalist market vs the federal reserve, and I think the free market will win just like in 2000 and 2007, that this is just another bubble fueld by heavy speculation rather than the likelyhood of an incoming explosion of growth and prosperity.

As a tool for overviewing the markets I use http://www.forexpf.ru/quote_show.php which is a brilliant free java based russian site with real time quotes of the most important stock indicies (both cash and electronic), commodities and currencies. I even prefer to use this rather than my paid trading platform data feed. As to news services I view http://www.zerohedge.com (they're very bearish, all the time), and http://www.marketwatch.com and http://www.bloomberg.com (more main stream, tends to believe the FED will save the american (and world) economy by creating bubbles). I beleive the markets are living a life of their own and really are not that much driven by news. The market tends to go up ahead of and when the FED speaks, at least they have for the greater portion of the last 5 years, for some reason (view the economic calendar at www.forexfactory.com ) to get the dates, along with dates for the release of various important economic indicators for the largest world economies. The FED is now scaling down its bond purchases (quantitative easing), and I think it will continue to do so in the coming months. At the same time I think we will see more selling pressure in the stock markets.

Trading with play money is an ok and safe introduction to the world of investment and financial instruments, although I think you get more interest and more of a driving force to figure out how things work if you put _a little_ of your hard earned cash into it.

(And of course I hate myself for not being more optimistic about stocks in the period late 2009 (when I first got interest in the stock market), till now, cause that would've been very profitable), I guess you can call me a bear. There is a saying, the market tops out when the last bear turns around and becomes bullish, but I'm still very pessimistic about stocks and think we're getting very close (or we may even be past the point where it tops out).

I have built up my own view of the world economy over the years I've followed the markets on a daily to weekly basis, but I tend to share the views of economists like David Stockman (former budget manager under Ronald Reagan ), and James Rickards (economist who has worked on wall street etc. ) rather than "main stream" economists like Paul Krugman and other economists from the "keynesian school of economics".

Happy trading.

#23 OFFLINE   Wookie

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Posted 25 January 2014 - 07:17 AM

Whoah, I almost started reading the entire text of Katze's but when I saw the length of it, the topic of it and the video titles, I realize it would be cheating! :D
Science isn't about why, it's about why not. You ask: why is so much of our science dangerous? I say: why not marry safe science if you love it so much. In fact, why not invent a special safety door that won't hit you in the butt on the way out, because you are fired.
- Cave Johnson

#24 OFFLINE   Wookie

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Posted 25 January 2014 - 12:57 PM

Don't invest - Win over the World :D

Posted Image
Science isn't about why, it's about why not. You ask: why is so much of our science dangerous? I say: why not marry safe science if you love it so much. In fact, why not invent a special safety door that won't hit you in the butt on the way out, because you are fired.
- Cave Johnson

#25 OFFLINE   isuck

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Posted 25 January 2014 - 02:44 PM

What a suprise Katze, never knew you were so knowledgeable about economics/stocks. What do/did you study and do for a living?

And if you bearish, why not short the market?

#26 OFFLINE   Wookie

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Posted 25 January 2014 - 02:54 PM

View Postisuck, on 25 January 2014 - 02:44 PM, said:

What a suprise Katze, never knew you were so knowledgeable about economics/stocks. What do/did you study and do for a living?

And if you bearish, why not short the market?
Stock marketing is never a completely reliable source of money :P
Science isn't about why, it's about why not. You ask: why is so much of our science dangerous? I say: why not marry safe science if you love it so much. In fact, why not invent a special safety door that won't hit you in the butt on the way out, because you are fired.
- Cave Johnson

#27 OFFLINE   stinkyfax

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Posted 25 January 2014 - 03:09 PM

View PostWookie, on 25 January 2014 - 02:54 PM, said:


Stock marketing is never a completely reliable source of money :P/>
just diversify enough. If you'd be losing money in long term stock, no investors would be rich.
Tristen: Son of a monkey.

#28 OFFLINE   katze

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Posted 25 January 2014 - 08:48 PM

Btw. is it still possible to join?

#29 OFFLINE   Wookie

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Posted 25 January 2014 - 09:08 PM

View Postkatze, on 25 January 2014 - 08:48 PM, said:

Btw. is it still possible to join?
Ofc, read the OP for instructions!
Science isn't about why, it's about why not. You ask: why is so much of our science dangerous? I say: why not marry safe science if you love it so much. In fact, why not invent a special safety door that won't hit you in the butt on the way out, because you are fired.
- Cave Johnson

#30 OFFLINE   katze

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Posted 27 January 2014 - 07:18 PM

View Postisuck, on 25 January 2014 - 02:44 PM, said:

What a suprise Katze, never knew you were so knowledgeable about economics/stocks. What do/did you study and do for a living?

And if you bearish, why not short the market?
I haven't studied anything related to economics, it's just an interest like everything else.
I've been working a lot lately (over time + 45 min to travel w/ferry each way) and haven't had enough time to follow the markets as closely as I would've liked to. I don't like to enter into a short position right after a fall like the one we had on friday + today, cause the markets have a nasty habit to reverse quite brutally, or at least go up and down for a few days or even a couple of weeks, and then I'd most likely end up covering my short. This time might be different though, and then we most likely will see a small reversal back up, then a continued sharp fall in the major indicies (NDX, SP500, DJIA), but I don't think this will happen now.

#31 OFFLINE   Wookie

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Posted 29 January 2014 - 07:16 PM

Yessssssssssssss my first investment that has gone positive
Posted Image
Science isn't about why, it's about why not. You ask: why is so much of our science dangerous? I say: why not marry safe science if you love it so much. In fact, why not invent a special safety door that won't hit you in the butt on the way out, because you are fired.
- Cave Johnson

#32 OFFLINE   Wookie

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Posted 30 January 2014 - 07:29 PM

Posted Image
Posted Image
Science isn't about why, it's about why not. You ask: why is so much of our science dangerous? I say: why not marry safe science if you love it so much. In fact, why not invent a special safety door that won't hit you in the butt on the way out, because you are fired.
- Cave Johnson

#33 OFFLINE   stinkyfax

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Posted 30 January 2014 - 09:43 PM

View PostWookie, on 30 January 2014 - 07:29 PM, said:

Spoiler
Posted Image
Tristen: Son of a monkey.

#34 OFFLINE   Wookie

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Posted 30 January 2014 - 09:54 PM

Real men risk it all and even more
Posted Image
Science isn't about why, it's about why not. You ask: why is so much of our science dangerous? I say: why not marry safe science if you love it so much. In fact, why not invent a special safety door that won't hit you in the butt on the way out, because you are fired.
- Cave Johnson

#35 OFFLINE   stinkyfax

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Posted 30 January 2014 - 10:08 PM

View PostWookie, on 30 January 2014 - 09:54 PM, said:

Real men risk it all and even more
Posted Image
yah same here :)
Tristen: Son of a monkey.

#36 OFFLINE   Wookie

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Posted 31 January 2014 - 09:08 PM

Posted ImagePosted Image

Edited by Wookie, 31 January 2014 - 09:09 PM.

Science isn't about why, it's about why not. You ask: why is so much of our science dangerous? I say: why not marry safe science if you love it so much. In fact, why not invent a special safety door that won't hit you in the butt on the way out, because you are fired.
- Cave Johnson

#37 OFFLINE   stinkyfax

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Posted 31 January 2014 - 11:09 PM

View PostWookie, on 31 January 2014 - 09:08 PM, said:

Posted ImagePosted Image
I've noticed you got microsoft there.

there are some CEO changes incoming for Microsoft, so a risky company to have your stocks in.
Tristen: Son of a monkey.

#38 OFFLINE   Wookie

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Posted 01 February 2014 - 07:54 AM

View Poststinkyfax, on 31 January 2014 - 11:09 PM, said:

I've noticed you got microsoft there.

there are some CEO changes incoming for Microsoft, so a risky company to have your stocks in.
You're bluffing! There will be a huge boom in their stock price!
Science isn't about why, it's about why not. You ask: why is so much of our science dangerous? I say: why not marry safe science if you love it so much. In fact, why not invent a special safety door that won't hit you in the butt on the way out, because you are fired.
- Cave Johnson

#39 OFFLINE   stinkyfax

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Posted 01 February 2014 - 09:47 AM

http://www.dailymail...ness-users.html
Tristen: Son of a monkey.

#40 OFFLINE   Wookie

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Posted 03 February 2014 - 04:08 PM

Posted Image

Science isn't about why, it's about why not. You ask: why is so much of our science dangerous? I say: why not marry safe science if you love it so much. In fact, why not invent a special safety door that won't hit you in the butt on the way out, because you are fired.
- Cave Johnson




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